In this report, forecasts will be presented for the Louisiana economy, its nine MSAs, and the rural section of
Louisiana. The forecasts are repeatedly referred to as “middling,” a term suggesting, “Here is our best shot, but there is a very wide variance in what might actually happen.”

Two major uncertainties cloud our view of the future. The largest is the presidential election. Louisiana is still a very fossil-fuel oriented state. One candidate is very anti-fossil fuels, and the other is very pro. There is a huge gap in
their positions. Second, is the national economy in a recession or will the Fed be able to manage a “soft landing” in its fight against inflation?

Regarding the presidential election, forecasts are presented with the understanding that actual employment will vary significantly around our point forecasts depending on who is elected. This is especially so for all of Louisiana
along and below I-10 and the Shreveport-Bossier MSA. It is further assumed the Fed will manage a soft landing, or if a recession occurs, it will be short and shallow.

It is assumed that oil prices---mainly through OPEC management---will hoover in the $80-$82 a barrel range, and that natural gas prices will rise from unusually low levels in 2024 to about $3.10 per mmBTU in 2026 due to increased demand from LNG exporters. The price gap between U.S. natural gas and prices in Asia and Europe will continue to spur a major industrial boom in south Louisiana.
With these assumptions in mind, we forecast each area of the state.